SUFFOLK CLOSEUP
By Karl Grossman
Does the defeat of former Suffolk County Republican Chairman John Jay LaValle last week in a race for Port Jefferson mayor—in which Mr. LaValle’s close linkage with President Trump was a main issue—mean trouble for Mr. Trump in 2020 in running in Suffolk? Does it also mean trouble for another staunch backer of Mr. Trump, U.S. Representative Lee Zeldin, running for re-election this year?
Mr. LaValle left as Suffolk GOP leader in March. As Newsday described him recently, he has “been President Donald Trump’s prime local cheerleader for the past three years.” Mr. LaValle regularly appeared on television as a surrogate supporting Mr. Trump. A former Brookhaven Town supervisor and cousin of long-time State Senator Kenneth LaValle of Port Jefferson, he held the GOP chairmanship for a decade.
He indicated when he stepped down that he was interested in being “out there advancing the president and if I end up in a formal role, that would be O.K., too.”
But he decided to run for mayor of Port Jefferson against five-term incumbent Margot Garant, a lawyer who not only had the strength of incumbency but also the incumbency of her mother, herself a former Port Jefferson mayor.
And the LaValle-Trump tie became very important. As one Port Jefferson voter, Arnold (Arnie) Tropper was quoted on the website Greater Port Jefferson as saying: “No way can I support LaValle. My biggest issue is that he is a huge Trump supporter and it’s one of the few anti-Trump statements I can make that actually has some results. My vote is more of an anti-Trump vote, even though I think she’s done a good job.”
Ms. Garant defeated Mr. LaValle 1,454 to 992.
Mr. LaValle told Newsday after losing: “The mayor ran an effective campaign making this a referendum on Donald Trump. That was the result.”
What will this mean for Mr. Trump who in 2016 carried Suffolk with 328,403 votes to Hillary Clinton’s 276,953? That was a hefty 8 percent margin in a county which Barack Obama carried with a nearly 4 percent margin in 2012 and 6 percent in 2008.
And what will it mean for Republican Zeldin of Shirley who is running this year for his third term representing the lst Congressional District which includes all of Brookhaven Town—in which Patchogue is located—along with most of Smithtown, a slice of Islip and all five East End towns: Southampton, East Hampton, Southold, Riverhead and Shelter Island?
“I would hope it is a trend,” commented Southampton Town Democratic Chairman Gordon Herr last week. “We’ll see.”
Mr. LaValle’s successor as Suffolk GOP chairman, Jesse Garcia, told me he regarded Mr. LaValle’s defeat as a “localized issue.” As for Mr. Zeldin encountering trouble this year for his support of Mr. Trump, Mr. Garcia said “Lee Zeldin stands on his own and he has a wide breadth of support for his actions on Long Island issues.” And regarding President Trump, Mr. Garcia said “our polling has shown he’s strong in Suffolk County and in Brookhaven Town [Mr. Garcia has also remained Brookhaven GOP leader.] His detractors may go after his candor, approach and outspokenness, but middle-class Suffolk taxpayers are responding to his policies and his stand on national security issues which I think will carry him—and we want to extend that 8% margin in 2016 even further in 2020.”
Former Suffolk County Legislator Jim Morgo, who has been Suffolk County chief deputy county executive, like fellow Democrat Herr would “like to think” that the LaValle defeat with his Trump allegiance playing a major part “portends the future.”
The question, said Mr. Morgo, is whether what happened in Port Jefferson, among Brookhaven communities including Patchogue and Stony Brook that are places of Democratic strength in the largely GOP town, the most populated in Suffolk, will carry over to much of the rest of Brookhaven and Suffolk. He believes broad opposition to Mr. Trump, his behavior and actions, will do this. Mr. Morgo of Bayport is active in the group Taking Action Suffolk County (TASC) started along with many similar organizations around the nation after Mr. Trump’s election to challenge him.
The founder of TASC, Bryan Erwin of Mattituck, said in an email blast last week: “We did it. Margot Garant was re-elected Port Jefferson Village mayor. TASC is proud to have helped see Mayor Garant awarded another term. But aside from Margot clearly being the better candidate, TASC was drawn to action by her opponent, John Jay LaValle….LaValle represents the hateful rhetoric and disgraceful cronyism that should have no place in our political system.”
The big political change these days in Suffolk, once heavily Republican, is that enrolled Democrats now outnumber Republicans—358,296 to 329,689. And there are 281,489 voters in the “blank” category, enrolled in no party, enabling political surprises to easily happen here.
Karl Grossman is a veteran investigative reporter and columnist, the winner of numerous awards for his work and a member of the L.I. Journalism Hall of Fame. He is a professor of journalism at SUNY/College at Old Westbury and the author of six books.